Mixed News Keeps the Dow Right around 10,000 for this Week
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Markets were weak on Thursday until McDonald's, AT&T, Merck and others reported better than expected earnings, surging the Dow enough to again regain the above 10,000 mark. Stocks dropped on Wednesday after analyst cut Wells Fargo outlook, prompting a selloff of financials and the markets overall. The number of first time unemployment insurance claims rose last week, halting two weeks of significant declines, according to a government report issued Thursday. A Commerce Department report released on Tuesday showed that housing starts increased at a rate of 590,000 last month, less than predicted in September.
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Once in a while a company comes along that makes you break the rules of investing. This week's bull pick is one of those companies. We have been on the fence about recommending it as a buy (again) after its nice run this year, but when you look at the quality of products, the profit margin on each product sold and the consumer demand on those products in the worst economic times in the last 50 years . . . you have to reconsider. Our Bearish pick on the other hand is seeing demand soften as its consumers realize there is no danger of government gun laws changing in the short term. Looking at the business cycle in the gun industry, there is evidence of a bubble that is losing steam and we can see over-abundance of inventory creating a Harley Davidson type problem. |
Apple (APPL) - We have been thinking about Apple for a while here at INW. Originally, INW recommended Apple as a Buy at this time last year and now it’s up 100% and we want to say . . . “keep buying”. The stock is up big over the last couple of days, you may have been thinking about buying Apple, and now feel you missed the boat. If you look at the stock price's historical movement, we can't help but join investors that feel like it’s too late to get in now. The thing is, Apple announced that it's having trouble meeting demand for its iPhone, Macs and Macbooks. Take a second to think about that. With consumer confidence still low coming out of a recession, a product that is priced 30% higher than its competitors, and a so-called dead "back to school" season, Apple can't meet demand.
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Sturm, Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) - Selling firearms was a great business when the NRA was scaring everyone into thinking that the new administration would be bringing back the Clinton gun restrictions. Today, even the most pro-NRA gun owner is realizing that those concerns may have been exaggerated and gun restrictions will most likely not be addressed in this President's first term at all. With the fight on healthcare and other stimulus issues, the chances of gun restriction legislation being introduced in the next 3 years is doubtful. If you look at the backlog sales figures, order cancellations are on the rise and industry insiders are acting as though they see the writing on the wall.
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