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Archive - 12/24/09 Issue

Short Week on Wall Street Shows Some Volatility

Investors keep the weeks small gains even after a surprise report that showed a drop in new homes sales, keeping dounts about an economic recovery very much alive as the end of the year approches. The three and a half days of trading were quiet as expected with most of the large investment management office closed for the week.

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The Senate seems ready to stamp a version of the healthcare plan approved after months of politics and negotiations. The question is, who is going to profit? This week we are looking at healthcare companies that we think will most profit from the current bill. Our Bearish pick comes at a time when investors are looking for down-trodden sectors that will recover in 2010. We understand the “buy low, sell high” argument and we always try to remind our readers not to chase performance and buy when an investment is down. But real estate stocks are already bouncing back, up 30%. The problem is that the housing data is contradictory and it’s all based on jobs anyway.

Aetna (AET) - Of the three major healthcare providers mentioned in this article, Aetna is the most likely to benefit from the removal of the public option from the current healthcare bill that looks to be approved before the new year. The company itself has a good balance sheet, respectable profit and operating margins, and is available at close to a 5-year low.
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Toll Brothers (TOL) - Investors have been tripping over themselves trying to solve the real estate bounce. When is recovery going to get here and how strong will it be. The problem is that a serious recovery will most likely lag behind an unemployment drop and that isn't set to happen until fall of next year. Right now mixed housing data is the best you will see and that’s not where you want to put your money.
Full Story

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